A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
