Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
